Evaluation of soil carbon simulation in CMIP6 Earth system models

Abstract. The response of soil carbon represents one the key uncertainties in future climate change. ability Earth system models (ESMs) to simulate present-day is therefore vital for reliably estimating global budgets required Paris Agreement targets. In this study CMIP6 ESMs are evaluated against empirical datasets assess each model and related controls: net primary productivity (NPP) turnover time (?s). Comparing with previous generation (CMIP5), a lack consistency modelled remains, particularly underestimation northern high-latitude stocks. There robust improvement simulation NPP compared CMIP5; however, an unrealistically high correlation stocks suggesting potential overestimation long-term terrestrial sink. Additionally, same improvements not seen ?s. These results suggest that much uncertainty associated can be attributed below-ground processes, greater emphasis on improving representation processes developments models. would help reduce projected release from soils under change increase confidence different levels warming.